The Writer's Fakeblock: On the first half of the 2018 College Football Season

A few thoughts at the midpoint...

Before the season I took a cautious approach to projecting how well Alabama's new pieces would perform. Right now it appears that both Tua Tagovailoa and their rebuilt secondary have exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. I actually don't even think their front seven has been up to the team's usual standards, but it hasn't even mattered because Alabama finally has a once in a generation quarterback to go with is embarrassment of riches at offensive line and wide receiver. It's possible that a team with elite defensive safeties or an elite pass rush can bait Tua into making reckless throws - but the fact that he played so well against Georgia leads me to believe that his production is more than a product of the defense he's faced. It's a long season, but it's hard to imagine how Alabama could have looked any more dominant through six weeks.

There's no team that could beat a healthy Alabama game in a seven game series. But I still believe Alabama can be beat in one game. There are a few teams that I believe can get to that point by the end of the year, but the only team that I believe is capable of doing that right now is Georgia. They've plugged in new players at running back without missing a beat, while also letting Jake Fromm (successfully) shoulder a bigger load on offense. As a result, I think they're more diverse and dangerous. Their run defense has been leakier than I expected, and if LSU can churn out yards then I may have to re-evaluate where they stand in the college football hierarchy. But right now I think they're toying with inferior competition, and they will smash through the second half of their schedule. Ultimately though, I have them losing to Alabama in the SEC championship game. Unfortunately for them, I don't think the committee will put a 1-loss conference runner up in over a 1-loss conference champion, but I think Georgia is and will remain the second best team in the country.
Shockingly, Florida may well be the third best team in the SEC. I thought Florida would need at least a year to restock the roster, but Dan Mullen has somehow worked miracles with this offense. I was amazed at how well he schemed the LSU game - by the second half he had the defense chasing ghosts on every other play. If he can manufacture offense with Felipe Franks, I think their offense will be a force when once he starts playing his own quarterback recruits.
Auburn's running game has collapsed without Kerryon Johnson, and Jarrett Stidham hasn't been able to pick up the slack the way I expected. Gus Malzahn won't get fired this year, but assuming they lose to Alabama and Georgia, I could see his seat being burning hot going into 2019.
When Notre Dame lost its two star offensive tackles to the NFL, I was skeptical that they could maintain a high level of offensive efficiency. Through the first four games, Wimbush's running alone wasn't enough allow the running game to out-leverage defenses that loaded the box. But Ian Book's insertion into the starting lineup has completely rejuvenated the passing game, which has kept defenses from loading the box in the first place. The defenses that Ian Book has played so far haven't been great, but the balance and versatility they've shown makes them much more dangerous than they were last year. Meanwhile, their defense has been nothing short of elite against several very good offenses. Many will dismiss this Notre Dame team because of their poor showing in the 2012 national championship game, but I think that is a mistake. This team recruits at an elite level, they are good in all phases of the game, and unlike the 2012 team they're blowing out their opponents rather than squeaking by. They may well lose to Alabama in the playoff, but that's mostly because this Alabama team is historically great. Make no mistake, this Notre Dame team is a legit top-5 team who will be worthy of their spot in the playoff.
I have always believed that Clemson's best chance at winning the championship involved committing to Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, letting him develop by getting as many reps as possible, and letting the rest of their offense get acclimated to a pro-style passing game. I still think it's presumptuous to think that a true freshman (even one as highly-touted as Lawrence) can pull off the upset against Alabama, but he's certainly much more likely to do so than Kelly Bryant ever would have been. I still have questions about their offensive line, which is why I have them below Alabama and Georgia, but because the ACC is so abysmal, I still think they have a great shot at the title by virtue of having (by far) the cleanest path to the playoff.
I obviously fully support cancelling North Carolina State's game against West Virginia for safety reasons, but it sure would have been nice to see how those two teams stacked up against each other. As it stands, NC State looks like they can sneak into a New Year's six game by virtue of the rest of the ACC being so atrocious. Their defense has been about as good as they could have hoped given what they lost on the defensive line, and Ryan Finley has improved enough to offset their decreased production in the running game. The Louisville and Florida State games look much less daunting than they did at the start of the year. Even assuming they lose to Clemson, their toughest game after that is probably a road game at Syracuse. I think anything less than 10 wins (or 11 if they play a cupcake to make up for the missed game against West Virginia) has to be viewed as a disappointment.
As of today, October 11, I am picking Michigan to win the big 10. Their defense is arguably the best in the country, and Shea Patterson is really starting to round into form. They get Penn State and Wisconsin at home, Michigan State looks way down this year, and Shea Patterson is exactly the kind of quarterback who can take advantage of Ohio State's proclivity for giving up big plays. Winning in Columbus will obviously be tough, but it's doable, and if I were an SEC team I would much rather face Ohio State than Michigan in a playoff game.
Ohio State has the talent to go toe to toe with Alabama. Dwyane Haskins isn't a superstar, but he's probably the best passer Urban Meyer has had at Ohio State, and with every passing week you can see him getting more comfortable making progression reads in Kevin Wilson's offense. He can keep the defense honest, which will allow Ohio State's running game to maintain consistency against elite defenses. Unfortunately, at this point it's clear that their tendency to give up big plays on defense is a feature, and not a bug. Their front seven constantly overpursues, and their defensive backs haven't shown the ability to hold their own in man coverage. If they want to be competitive in the playoff, I think they need to dial down their ultra-aggressive scheme.
Statistically, Penn State has been pretty good - they're a top 20 team on both offense and defense, per S&P+. The near-loss to Appalachian State looks better now than it did in week 1, and they probably should have beat Ohio State. They have a great shot to make a new year's six game, but I am worried about their rushing defense, and I think they will be vulnerable in their games against Wisconsin and Michigan.
Even if Washington wins out, I would not feel great about their playoff case. Their loss to Auburn becomes less defensible every week, and they haven't been particularly impressive in their wins despite playing in such a weak conference. Jake Browning has regressed from where he was two years ago, their offensive line hasn't recovered from the loss of Trey Adams, and their secondary simply hasn't played up to its potential. The best thing I can say about Washington is that their receiving corps is as good as that of any other team in the country; the problem is that what makes them great is their ability to win jump balls on downfield passes, and Jake Browning isn't the right quarterback to make the most of that ability. I still think they're the best team in the pac-12, but if their secondary doesn't start playing to its potential I think they can easily lose road games against Oregon and Washington State. If they want to make the playoff, they need to start dominating their competition.
One could make the case that Oregon has been the most impressive pac-12 team to date. Justin Herbert hasn't missed a beat in coming back from his injury. It is certainly true that their defense hasn't been impressive despite playing a soft schedule, but I still think their offense can carry them against most of the pac-12. I think the winner of their game against Washington will emerge as the conference champion.
Stanford's defense has actually been better than I expected, but their offense has been worse. I thought they would be able to run roughshod over their opponents, but they simply haven't ben able to handle the parade of 8-man fronts. Their passing game has become overly dependent on KJ Costello hitting his receivers on fade routes, and that simply isn't sustainable against teams with good corners.
USC has looked like an average team, and that's despite JT Daniels actually being pretty impressive for a true freshman. Midway through his third full season, Clay Helton's tenure is starting to feel a lot like Kevin Sumin's at Texas A&M: He inherited star players at quarterback, offensive tackle, and wide receiver, and started off his tenure with a bang. However as soon as his own recruits started cycling into the program, his inability develop players (especially offensive linemen) prevented the team from maintaining its initial success. If Helton can turn around this year's team and pull off an upset in the Pac-12 championship then I will revise my thoughts, but right now the warning signs are flashing bright red.
Texas's loss to Maryland was inexcusable, but it is clear to me that they've gotten better every week, in part because they've leaned harder and harder on Sam Ehlinger's running ability. West Virginia will be a big test for their defense, but they get that game at home, and I think they can physically overpower West Virginia's defense.
All of my concerns over Oklahoma's defense have come to fruition this year. I believe the promotion of Ruffin McNeil to defensive coordinator is a good long-term move, but in the short term it's unlikely he can magically make them into a good tackling team over the next six games. Kyler Murray has been good enough that they should still win 10 games, but I think they will struggle to win road games at TCU and West Virginia.
I still have doubts about how West Virginia's defense will hold up against the better big-12 offenses, but their offense gives them a chance to win every game. Will Grier has increased both his volume and efficiency, and their running game has been even better than I expected. Two years ago West Virginia looked impressive until Oklahoma spanked them Morgantown, but I think this year West Virginia is better and Oklahoma is worse, and I think they will win that game and get two chances to beat Texas.