On the SEC:
- I predicted Alabama would have some drop-off on defense last year; statistically they were fine, but they clearly struggled to reload at middle linebacker. By the end of the regular season they looked as vulnerable as they've ever looked during the Saban era. They ended up being fine in the playoffs, but I think there's cause for concern again this year. They lose 3 of the their top 5 linebackers, and its top 6(!) players in the secondary. Saban's scheme depends on having corners hold up in press coverage on the outside, safeties taking away RPOs, and middle linebackers cleaning up runs that get funneled to them. Even with how well Alabama recruits, they will be asking a lot of some really green players. Of course, if Tua Tagavailoa is truly as good as he appeared to be in the national championship game, then Alabama's offense will p be good enough to carry the team. The rest of their offense is loaded, and if Saban has found his first truly elite quarterback then this offense will be unfair. But then again I thought Saban would unleash Jalen Hurts last year, but it appears Saban didn't feel comfortable making his quarterback the focal point, and it's not sure thing that he'll open up the offense for Tua. Moreover, Tua's championship game performance may well be a mirage that only occurred because Georgia wasn't prepared for him - Garrett Gilbert serves as a cautionary tale. Overall, Alabama is always a safe bet, but perhaps not as much so as in previous years.
- I can't think of any instances of a team improving from one year to the next as much Georgia did from 2016 to 2017. I figured they would win big eventually given how well they were recruiting, but the fact that they made the jump so quickly speaks to how strong their culture is. I expect them to be dominant again. Georgia simply doesn't have any holes on its roster; they lost some key pieces, but none of their position groups were decimated to the point of relying exclusively on young players. The only exception to this is running back, but as long as their offensive line (which returns all five starters) maintains its level of play, I think this is probably the easiest position to reload. Moreover, given how much Jake Fromm improved as the year went on (and given the fact that his backup, Justin Fields, might be even better), I think their passing can be more explosive this year, making them less dependent on the running game to move the ball. Overall though, I think Georgia is the clear favorite in the SEC for the simple reason that their schedule is so manageable. They have a clear talent advantage over their division, they miss Alabama and get Auburn at home, and their toughest road game is against an LSU team that did not look impressive last year. It's hard to see them having more than one regular season loss, and they should be much fresher than whoever comes out of the West.
- I was really impressed by how Auburn improved over the regular season, particularly how well Gus Malzahn adapted his offense to fit Jarrett Stidham's talents. That made their last two games all the more discouraging. I frankly think they should have won both of those games; it's possible that Auburn played above its head in the regular season and got exposed in the postseason, but I tend to think they took those games for granted (especially the bowl game against UCF). Assuming the latter, they should be excellent again this year. Malzahn will probably let Stidham (who I think could've been drafted last year and will probably be a first round pick this year) sling it around even more this year to compensate for the losses in the running game. They return almost everyone from a nasty front seven, and they return just enough from what was a stellar secondary that I think they should be elite again. I would be higher on them if the schedule weren't so daunting. They open with a Washington team whose strengths mirror Auburn's, and have to play both Georgia and Alabama on the road. If they win the SEC they'll have more than earned a spot in the playoff.
- I think Jimbo Fisher is a clear upgrade over Kevin Sumlin for Texas A&M. He showed at Florida State that he can establish a winning culture and recruit at a championship level. However, I feel that his Florida State teams consistently underperformed relative to their talent levels, in large part because Fisher was too conservative with his in-game strategy (particularly his refusal to use tempo and/or go for it on 4th downs in opponent territory) and too loyal to assistant coaches who probably didn't deserve it. He'll need to be smarter about pboth of those in College Station, because he'll never have the kind of talent advantage that he had in the ACC. My guess is the Aggies will be a tougher game than they were in previous years, but in the long term I'm skeptical that Fisher will have enough success to justify his lavish contract.
- I was shocked when LSU hired Ed Orgeron as the full-time coach, and I was shocked that he kept his job after last year - LSU should NEVER lose to Troy! They will probably win 8 or 9 games again this year on talent alone, and perhaps this year the offense will improve now that Ed Orgeron appears to trust his coordinator. But they still have gigantic questions at quarterback, and a brutal schedule. If they lose to Miami in week one I could see things going off the rails quickly.
- In 2014, Mississippi State combined an experienced roster, a Heisman contender at quarterback, and a top flight coach to beat several more talented teams en route to an appearance in the Orange Bowl. They don't recruit well enough to have seasons like that every year, but I believe they have the goods to execute off a similar blueprint this year. The experience is there, and if Nick Fitzgerald's ankle is healthy so is the quarterback play. Losing Dan Mullen is obviously a big blow, and no first year coach is a sure thing; we certainly don't know how well Joe Moorhead can recruit, hire assistant coaches, and manage a program. However, the way he dramatically improved Penn State's offense is evidence enough of his Xs-and-Os acumen. I think they can beat Florida, LSU, and Texas A&M this year, and get to 10 wins.
- I don't think Dan Mullen gets enough credit for the job he did at Mississippi State, and I think he will have Florida back to competing for SEC East titles sooner rather than later. But Jim MacElwain's poor recruiting left the cupboard too bare for them to compete for a division title this year.
On the ACC
- The safest playoff bet is Clemson. The only team that can match their raw talent is Florida State, who will probably face some growing pains with a new coach. Their defense would have been elite even if Christian Wilkins and Austin Bryant had turned pro - with both of them returning, it is a joke how good Clemson's front seven is going to be. The return most of what was an excellent secondary, and the slight loss of depth will probably be mitigated by the fact that it will be damn near impossible to block Clemson's front four. If necessary, they can probably beat any team by reducing the game to a slug fest. Of course, to win the title they will likely need more from their offense than they got last year. I think Kelly Bryant actually improved a lot as the year went on, but the playoff game showed he isn't special in the same way Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson were. I think Clemson either needs to make Bryant's legs a bigger part of the offense (which would help their poor success rate on first downs), or hand the keys of the offense to Trevor Lawrence. My guess is that this year will be a lot like 2014: the veteran (Bryant/Cole Stoudt) starts the year, but over time the prodigy (Lawrence/Watson) takes more and more of the snaps. If Clemson can find an answer at quarterback, I think they have all of the elements in place to produce the kind of explosive offense they've been known for over the past 5 years. Because their schedule is favorable, and because I have faith in Clemson's ability to develop quarterbacks, I have them as the national championship favorite.
- Willie Taggart will make Florida State a power again. He's won everywhere he's coached - his overall coaching record may not be impressive, but everywhere he goes his teams improve in each season. I thought he was getting Oregon to play above their talent level before Justin Herbert got injured. What has always impressed me most about Taggart is his ability to adapt his offense to his personnel, most notably in adapting his preferred west coast offense to a spread option system that fit with the athletes he had at USF. In addition to what I said above, one of my other issues with Jimbo Fisher's tenure in Florida State is that he ran a pro-style offense that may have been too complicated for most college players. It obviously worked when he had a polished pocket passer like Jameis Winston, but it didn't work as well with Christian Ponder and Deondre Francois, and it didn't take enough advantage of EJ Manuel's running ability. I think Taggart will do a much better job of maximizing his personnel. This year might be rough given how young the defense is, but I think Taggart will run an offense is simpler for the quarterback (whether it be Deondre Francois or James Blackmon) and better takes advantage of FSU's deep stable of skill position players.
- I never thought Miami was as good as their record last year. Most of their wins were close wins against bad teams; the Notre Dame win was impressive, but when they weren't forcing turnovers they were exposed against Clemson and Wisconsin. This year I don't think they'll force as many turnovers because their defensive line won't wreak as much havoc, but their back seven is so good that their defense shouldn't drop off. Ultimately though, their fate will come down to how much production they get from the quarterback. Malik Rosier was solid for most of the year, but he regressed badly in December, and I worry about how he'll perform without his security blanket, Braxton Berrios, bailing him out of so many tough situations. Miami has more explosive, less reliable targets that can step in, but for their offense to click they'll need Rosier to be more efficient.
- If Rosier isn't up to the task, don't sleep on Virginia Tech. The defense is incredibly young, but their only tough conference game in the first two months is their opening week game at Florida State, which gives their young defenders time to gel. I know Justin Fuente can manufacture an efficient offense, and if the defense can tread water until their home games against Miami and Boston College, I can see the Hokies winning the coastal.
On the Big 10
- Before getting to football, I want to say what a disgrace Ohio State's handling of the Zach Smith investigation was. I don't care about whether or not there was ever a criminal charge or conviction against Zach Smith. It is actually quite common for domestic abuse cases to not be prosecuted. Furthermore, Ohio State University isn't a court of law - they don't need proof beyond a reasonable doubt to fire an employee. If there was strong evidence that Zach Smith was guilty of intimate partner violence then they should have fired him. And make no mistake - Brett McMurphy's reporting details a pattern of repeated abuse, and everything Zach Smith said in his interview is is textbook abuser-speak. For goodness sakes, McMurphy released text messages in which Shelley Meyer refers to photographic evidence of abuse! If you are denying that Zach Smith abused Courtney Smith then you are being willfully ignorant. The OSU investigative report makes it clear that Urban Meyer knew about the abuse (side note: I'm not sure why he lied about it at Big 10 media days, but if he really has frequent memory lapses due to medication then how can anyone justifying putting him in charge of a football team?); Meyer himself admits to knowing about the 2015 incident as well as Smith's history of abuse. Thus, Meyer knew he had a serial domestic abuser on his staff and kept him on the staff anyways. If you are defending this, you are basically saying you are fine with enabling a domestic abuser if it helps your football team win games, and you REALLY need to re-evaluate your priorities in life. On another note, I also think Gene Smith should've been fired if he knew about the abuse and still allowed Meyer to keep Zach Smith on staff.
- Whether or not Meyer did anything wrong, he should be taken to task for his unbelievably callous "apology" during the press conference. He apologized to Buckeye Nation before he apologized to Courtney Smith. When he apologized to Courtney Smith, he didn't actually apologize for enabling her abuser or for not offering more support; he apologized for the fact that they were in the situation they were in. He didn't regret his actions, he only regretted that someone tried to hold him accountable. I couldn't care less about him mustering up enough empathy to release an apology that his PR interns crafted for him two days after the fact. Urban Meyer showed his true colors when he was put on the spot, and they weren't very pretty to look at.
- Final note: if you are a fan of a rival school and you are dancing on Ohio State's grave, keep in mind that A) you are celebrating, whether intentionally or not, the fact that a woman was repeatedly abused and B) your team almost certainly has its own embarrassing skeletons. Be careful about claiming the moral high ground, it will only make the fall that much steeper.
- Back to Football. Ohio State is simply loaded. There are some who will fret about the loss of J.T. Barrett, who is statistically the most prolific quarterback in school history. I'm not worried at all - Barrett's running may have raised their floor against inferior teams, but his limits as a passer hamstrung them against teams that OSU couldn't physically overpower. Dwayne Haskins isn't the same caliber of runner, but OSU has so much talent at running back and offensive line that I don't think they will struggle to generate yards on standard downs. On the other hand, Haskins in his limited time showed much more upside as a passer. He appears to be a much better fit for what Kevin Wilson wants to do. If he can stretch defenses vertically and allow Ohio State to manage passing downs better, it's hard to see how anyone can stop this offense. I don't think Haskins will put up the same stats as Barrett, but I think his (ridiculously talented) receivers will have better numbers. Ohio State has holes to fill in the back seven, but they'll be replacing blue chip recruits with more blue chippers, and their front four alone will be enough to win most games. On paper this might be Urban Meyer's most complete Buckeye team yet.
- Last year Penn State was one of my favorite teams to watch because of how well the executed and how prepared they looked for every game. They are clearly extremely well-coached, and they keep inching closer to Ohio State's talent level. I think their offense is going to be a problem once again. Saquon Barkley is a monumental loss, but I honestly thought their rushing attack was surprisingly boom-or-bust last year. With better play from a more experienced offensive line, I think they can retain their solid rushing numbers. If anything, I think they might miss Barkley's presence in the passing game more, but Trace McSorley did a great job of spreading the ball around and making sure their offense didn't rise and fall with any one player. I'm more concerned about the defense; they have playmakers, but their lack of depth makes them a risky bet.
- I wasn't surprised that Michigan had a drop off last year given how many starters they were losing, but I definitely didn't expect their offense to completely crater. I find it shocking that Jim Harbaugh of all people hasn't been able to find a reliable quarterback in three seasons. Theoretically, Shea Patterson should be the best quarterback he has had, and with a more experienced offensive line and healthy receiving corps Harbaugh can finally field an offense to match his elite defenses. And make no mistake - their defense will be elite, possibly the best in the nation. They were a top 10 defense despite relying mostly on freshmen and sophomores. While the offense should be better, I remain skeptical it will be enough to beat Ohio State and Penn State.
- Last year Wisconsin had a very good team, and this year it's possible they could be even better. They will boast the the best offensive line in the country opening holes for Jonathan Taylor; if Alex Hornibrook can cut down on his propensity for turnovers, the offense could be special. I, however, have doubts that they can replicate last year's success. For one, their losses at defensive end, linebacker, and cornerback are significant for a program that can't just plug in 5 star recruits. But I think the bigger issue is that last year they took advantage of an incredibly easy schedule: their toughest regular season game was at home against a beat-up Michigan team, and in the bowl game they beat a Miami team that was clearly not as good as its record. This year brings trips to Penn State and Michigan, meaning they probably won't get to the Big 10 title game unscathed. I still think they'll get there, but beating one of those two teams, or an Ohio State team that figures to be even better than it was last year, will be a tall order.
- I like this Michigan State team, but they're at just too much of a talent disadvantage in the hardest division in college football.
- Scott Frost coordinated a historically great Oregon offense in 2014, and engineered a remarkable 2017 season at UCF. Certainly nobody understands the culture of Cornhusker football better than one of Tom Osborne's former quarterbacks. If he can't bring Nebraska back to prominence, I'm not sure if anybody will.
On the Big 12
- Last year, Oklahoma's defense was flat out putrid. They overcame this with one of the greatest offenses (perhaps even the best offense) in college football history; but if it had been "merely" great instead of historically great, they might not have even made it to 10 wins. For them to make the playoff again, either they need Kyler Murray to duplicate Baker Mayfield's success, or they need a major improvement on defense. I like Kyler Murray, but asking him to produce a Heisman trophy season isn't fair. They'll be very good on offense because the rushing duo of Kyler Murray and Rodney Anderson will be so potent, but I don't think they'll be unstoppable. As for the defense, I think the talent is there, and perhaps they'll improve simply by virtue of being more experienced, but as long as Mike Stoops has full control of the defense (which it appears he has had ever since Bob Stoops left), I think there's a ceiling on how good this unit can be. This team may well be the Big 12 favorite, but that's as far as I'm willing to go.
- By contrast, Texas consistently showed the ability to play high-level defense last year. They bring back the majority of their defense, with the caveat that the players they don't bring back were their best players. Poona Ford and Deshon Elliott are big losses, but I personally thought Malik Jefferson was more hype/upside than actual production; they'll survive losing him. Texas will replace their losses with blue chip recruits, and I think Todd Orlando will get the most out of those players. The offense is a bigger concern. They should have a better line by virtue of being more experienced, and the skill position players have upside if not experience. How you feel about their offense ultimately comes down to how you feel about Sam Ehlinger. Personally I think he has all the physical tools for the position and he's accurate; most of his woes were due to decision-making, which will improve with another year of seasoning. I don't think their offense will be great, but I think it can be above-average. If they can field the best defense in the conference, which I expect they will, an above average defense will be good enough to win the big 12.
- The other team that I could see winning the conference is West Virginia. They return almost every starter, including likely first round pick Will Grier, from what was an elite offense; they're going to light up scoreboards. Their defense saw a major drop off last year, and it could improve if their transfers can make an immediate impact. I'm bearish on them though, because their schedule is tough (nonconference games against Tennessee and North Carolina State), and I'm not convinced their defense will hold up physically against Texas and Oklahoma.
On the Pac 12
- Washington has everything it takes to finish in the top four. Their start a pair of senior Heisman contenders at quarterback and running back. If Trey Adams comes back fully healthy the offensive line boasts talent and experience. They lose their top two receivers, but they get Chico McClatcher back and will be giving time to young, high-upside players. They lose some big time players in the front seven (most notably Vita Vea and Azeem Victor), but they'll be replaced by players like Greg Gaines and DJ Beavers who have already shown strong ability. They return all the top players from a secondary that greatly exceeded expectations, and over the past four years Washington has shown that they coach defensive backs as well as any team; I think this will be the nation's best pass defense. I still don't think they can win a title; Jake Browning is awesome, but he's not the kind of dynamo that can overcome the talent advantage they would be at against a team like Alabama or Ohio State. However, they should be favored in every game on their regular season schedule, and they can win a playoff game if they draw a favorable matchup against a team whose defensive line they can handle.
- I think there's a good chance that this year progresses like 2016: Washington has the best season in the Pac 12, but by the end of the year USC is the best team in the conference. Their offensive line brings back their best players, and they've recruited that position as well as any team since Clay Helton took over. They lose some key skill position players (Ronald Jones, Deontay Burnett, Steven Mitchell), but I honestly thought their replacements (Stephen Carr, Tyler Vaughns, and Michael Pittman Jr.) could be better. Their offense should also have better red zone luck this year. I think their run defense will be better with Porter Gustin and Cameron Smith returning; while the pass rush may suffer, I think the secondary will be excellent because the starters they lose weren't that impressive last year, and they'll replace them with blue chippers. USC is probably starting a true freshman at quarterback, which is why I have them losing to Texas and Stanford in September. However, if J.T. Daniels is as good advertised, I think this team has a serious shot to win the conference in December. They'll cruise through the South division, they'll have a big advantage in overall talent against whoever win the North, and by that time Daniels will have 12 games under his belt. By then it may be too late to make the playoff, but it can set USC up for 2019. I still think Washington will win that game just because they are so complete, but don't write off USC even if they start slow.
- Usually Stanford in the conversation for Pac 12 champion, but I'm not buying it this year. One one hand, the offense may be the best in the conference. They bring back Heisman trophy favorite Bryce Love (even if his extreme boom-or-bust style may be somewhat unsustainable), four all-conference linemen, and all their best receivers; if they've found a quarterback in KJ Costello (and based on the back half of last season, I would say they have), the offense doesn't have any question marks. The problem is their defense was a mess last year and I'm not sure it's going to get better. It's not like they were super inexperienced and bring back the majority of their starters. The guys they bring back aren't particularly impressive; they lose some key players from the front seven, and although they have highly touted recruits waiting in the wings, it would take a lot for those new faces to maintain (let alone improve) Stanford's play from last year. Moreover the schedule is a nightmare, with trips to Washington, Oregon, and Notre Dame; they are beyond lucky to catch USC in September. For those reasons, I'm not too high on Stanford.
- I thought Oregon looked great last year when Herbert was healthy. Right now he would be my prediction for the first quarterback taken in next year's NFL Draft. I don't love the Mario Cristobal hire for the long term, but for the time being I think Herbert can carry Oregon to second place in the North division.
- I can't wait to see how Chip Kelly's first season at UCLA goes. When Kelly was last in college he elevated Oregon to incredible heights that they may never reach again. I was always impressed with their remarkable consistency - they never played down to opponents, and pretty much only lost when they were at a physical disadvantage. At UCLA he won't have the same facilities he had at Oregon, but he'll have access to a more fertile recruiting base, so theoretically he can make UCLA into a powerhouse. I think if he stays at UCLA long enough he should get them to winning 9-10 games a year and regularly challenging for the conference crown. I think there are some important caveats though.
- Kelly coached at Oregon when a the rest of the conference was down due to poor coaching hires (and in USC's case, scholarship limits). At that time Stanford was the only real threat. Now Washington and USC are back to operating at their historical norms, and the bottom of the conference is generally better (except for Oregon State).
- Two of the main ways Kelly won at Oregon were playing at as fast a tempo as possible to maximize the value of his speedy skill position players, and by generally using a simpler playbook that allowed the team to emphasize conditioning and execution during practices. These tactics were revolutionary at the time, but are mainstream now. One of Kelly's biggest problems in the NFL was that he failed to adapt when teams caught up to his tactics, and hopefully he will be less predictable at UCLA. I will note that tempo generally works better in college because you have a bigger roster with younger players, and college refs are more willing to allow quick snaps.
- By all accounts, Kelly ran the offense at Oregon while Nick Aliotti had full control over the defense. Oregon's defense cratered when Aliotti retired (under head coach Mark Helfrich). The point is not that Kelly is a bad defensive coach, but rather that we don't know how good he is on that side of the ball. Jerry Azzinaro is a veteran who coached the defensive line under Kelly at Oregon, and he may well be able to handle the defense on his own; but for the time being I see this as a question mark.
- Arizona couldn't have hired a better coach for Khalil Tate than Kevin Sumlin. I actually think Tate will take a step back this year when teams realize how limited he is if you commit to keeping him in the pocket, but Sumlin is the perfect guy to do everything possible to get him in space and let him wreak havoc on the edges.
- Arizona State got a lot of criticism for hiring Herm Edwards, but I actually am cautiously optimistic. Even before they hired him I have always thought Edwards would make a good college coach. His enthusiastic personality and NFL experience should serve him well with recruits. The question I always have with NFL coaches is how flexible they are in adapting to the different tactics in the college game, and if they understand just how much more important recruiting is compared to Xs-and-Os. I will admit that introductory press conference was bizarre, to say the least; it looked like something written by Liz Lemon and Jack Donaghy. But as long as Edwards hires assistants who know the college game, and he hits the recruiting trail with full force, he could work better than many seem to expect.
On the best of the rest
- I believe Notre Dame was good enough to compete with any team in America last year. Their two November losses showed how much they struggled with coming from behind, but going toe to toe with Georgia and throttling USC demonstrated their primacy. I'm not sure how well they can replicate that success again. One one hand, they return almost everyone from a defense that was a year ahead of schedule; they should be a top 10 defense. They play three of their toughest games at home (although I predict they will be unlucky to catch USC later rather than earlier in the year). I'm pretty worried about their offense though. They return everyone on their interior offensive line, but they have to replace two absolutely dominant tackles. They might still field a dominant ground game, because Brandon Wimbush is that good as runner. But if they struggle at all, I have serious doubts that the passing game can pick up the slack. Wimbush simply isn't a good passer when his legs don't create wide open passing lanes, and they have very little returning production at wide receiver. I can see them making the playoff, but I think there are better bets.
- After last year's really weird start (I will never understand their fourth quarter meltdown against Washington State), Brett Rypien got his groove back and Boise State started looking like the kings of the group of 5 that I thought they would be. This year they have a senior Heisman contender at quarterback, depth and experience at wide receiver, star power on the defensive line, and a back seven that balled out despite starting mostly underclassmen. I don't think this team is talented enough to go scorched earth on the Mountain West the way Kellen Moore's teams did; and even if they do go undefeated, I doubt they'll make the playoff because their best marquee non-conference win (Oklahoma State) probably won't be impressive enough (and even if they made it they would probably be outclassed). But anything worse than a 1 loss season and New Years 6 bowl should be considered a disappointment.
On the Heisman Trophy
Bryce Love returns, as does his offensive line; If I had to bet on the Heisman trophy, I would bet on Bryce Love eclipsing 2000 yards and taking home the trophy. I think Trace McSorley, Jonathan Taylor, and Will Grier will be the other finalists.
On the New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Alabama
Peach Bowl: Miami vs. Auburn
Cotton Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Washington
Orange Bowl: (2) Clemson vs. (3) Georgia
National Championship: (1) Ohio State vs. (2) Clemson
National Champion: Clemson
