On the 2017-18 College Football Postseason

A few predictions:

• On the final playoff field:
• To me, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia were a cut above everyone else (in that order). After that, it's hard to get too worked up about the debate over the 4th spot. I'm fine with Alabama - they don't have any truly bad losses, like Ohio State did against Iowa. I also would've been fine with Ohio State; their because of their big wins over Penn State and Wisconsin were more impressive than any of Alabama's wins. You can spin it either way, and both teams would have only had themselves to blame for being left out. Personally, I think Alabama has the higher ceiling of the two teams if they can get their linebackers healthy,  and so that's who I probably would've picked.
• For what it's worth, I would have preferred seeing Auburn get a second crack at Clemson than watch either Alabama or Ohio state get smoked. But I understand why the committee felt they couldn't justify selecting a 3-loss team that got smoked in the SEC championship.
• On the Sugar Bowl:
• For the first time in the Nick Saban era, I'm going into this game wondering whether the Tide have a path to victory that doesn't involve a good deal of luck. Clemson's front seven is too good for Alabama to win by just running the ball downhill. They're either going to need to rely heavily on the quarterback option (which they pretty much abandoned after Lane Kiffin left), or get more out out of the vertical passing game than they've gotten all year. I'm fairly skeptical that they can re-invent their offense this quickly.
• I vastly overestimated how much Jalen Hurts would progress as a passer this year. If his first read isn't there, he gets immediate happy feet. Usually it was fine because Alabama can overwhelm teams with its running game, but that isn't going to work against Clemson. They'll double Calvin Ridley, hold their own in the trenches, and force Hurts to make tough throws from the pocket.
• And even if Alabama's offense brings its A-game, I think Clemson still stands a pretty good chance to outpace them. The Iron Bowl exposed just how much Alabama's linebacker play has dropped off from a year ago. They're relying on painfully inexperienced freshmen who are a bit too small to handle the run-stopping responsibility Alabama usually places on its middle linebackers. Auburn was able to churn out yards with both misdirection and power, and I imagine Clemson will do the same. But even if they need to rely on passing the ball, Kelly Bryant showed the ability to make progression reads from the pocket towards the end of the season. He should be able to win a shootout against Hurts, which is definitely not something I expected to say at the start of the year.
• Prediction: Clemson 31, Alabama 14
• On the Rose Bowl
• Oklahoma's offense against Georgia's defense is going to be an amazing matchup.
• At the start of the year I thought OU had the talent to win the big 12, but not enough to compete on a national scale. The win over the Buckeyes in Columbus proved that this year's team is different. In particular, I was really impressed by how well their offensive line handled a really talented Ohio State front four. That game gives me confidence that they can keep Baker Mayfield upright in this game.
• Georgia might have the best run defense in the country. I go back and forth on how well Oklahoma will run the ball in this game. But then again, even if they can't, they can probably get enough points by just letting Mayfield drop back and throw it 40 times. Mayfield has become phenomenal at making pre-snap reads and checking Oklahoma into the right play, thus making the game easy for his receivers.
• Oklahoma does not have a good defense. They struggle to maintain assignments and make tackles in space. If there were facing a big-12 style spread passing game, or even a team like Auburn, I would be much lower on their chances. Lucky for them, no such team exists in this year's playoff. Defending Georgia (and if they advance, Alabama or Clemson) is about getting a hat on a hat, and out-muscling the opponent at the point of attack. Oklahoma's front seven proved their worth when they shut down Ohio State's running game. I think Georgia's downhill running game is probably not quite as good, because the threat of the QB run isn't nearly as strong. On the other hand, while Jake Fromm is hardly an elite passer, he's much better at pushing the ball downfield than J.T. Barrett and can at least prevent Oklahoma from loading their entire defense within 20 yards of the line of the line of scrimmage. Ultimately, this is probably the key to the game. If Georgia can run it down Oklahoma's throat and keep Mayfield on the sideline, they'll pull away before the fourth quarter. But ff it's a close game late, I like OU's chances to manufacture a go-ahead drive, especially if Georgia's defense is exhausted from having to chase Mayfield outside the pocket.
• Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Georgia 17
• On the Cotton Bowl
• To me, Ohio State is like Alabama - they can bully inferior teams, but they're eminently beatable against teams that aren't overwhelmed by OSU's talent on the lines. I really thought that Kevin Wilson's coaching would help J.T. Barrett become a better downfield passer, but that just doesn't appear to be in his wheelhouse. Teams consistently loaded the box and Barrett couldn't make them play honest. It didn't matter against most big ten teams, because OSU could run against a stacked box. But the Buckeyes got outclassed by Oklahoma, weren't very impressive against Wisconsin or Michigan, and should have lost against Penn State if not for J.T. Barrett passing the ball as well as he ever has (and probably ever will). 
• So, which group is USC in? One could use their dominant win over Stanford in September as evidence that USC has the goods to hang with Ohio State; of course, USC never played that well the rest of the year, in large part because they never got a bye week and couldn't stay healthy all year. For me though, the Notre Dame game (their only game against a team with championship-level talent) leads me to believe USC won't be able to hold up in the trenches.
• In September I predicted USC would beat Ohio State in the playoffs, in part because I thought Sam Darnold would be the ultimate ace in the hole. As it turns out, I was about as wrong as I could be about Darnold. He's been astoundingly mediocre this year. In retrospect, I think I underestimated just how much USC's roster allowed them to enhance his strengths and hide his weaknesses last year. Chad Wheeler and Zach Banner gave him consistently clean pockets, which hid his tendency to make poor decisions under pressure. Juju Smith-Schuster commanded extra coverage, which opened up space to make the intermediate throws at which he excels; without that, Darnold had to throw into tighter windows, and his lack of a canon arm got exposed. Now, if he can recapture some of last year's magic, Ohio State could be in trouble. But I'm not banking on it.
• Prediction: Ohio State 27, USC 13
• On the Fiesta Bowl
• One of the things that impressed me the most about Penn State was their tendency to start games fast. To me, that's a sign of an exceptionally well-coached team. I expect another fast start from them with a month to prepare for the bowl game.
• Chris Petersen is obviously no slouch in the coaching department, and it's always tough to bet against him with a month to prepare. But I just don't see it with this year's Washington team, especially since Trey Adams went down. They've struggled to protect Jake Browning, and Browning struggles greatly when he can't make timing throws in rhythm. And as great as Dante Pettis is, Washington's lack of a big play wide receiver could really hurt them in this matchup.
• Penn State's offensive line struggled to open holes for Saquon Barkley towards the end of the year. Washington's front seven certainly presents a formidable challenge, although the fact that Bryce Love had some success against them on a tweaked ankle bodes well for the Lions.
• Barkley vs. Pettis might be the best special teams battle in recent memory.
• Prediction: Penn State 31, Washington 20
• On the Orange Bowl
• I was pretty skeptical of Wisconsin throughout the year, but I think they proved themselves in their win over Michigan and solid showing against Ohio State. They should be able to run the ball on Miami, and Alex Hornibrook is solid enough to make the throws he needs to make when Miami loads up the box.
• By contrast, I think Miami's last two games proved that they were never a real championship contender. Miami should be proud of its season, and with the way Richt is recruiting South Florida the future looks bright. But the clearly their initial undefeated record was due to unsustainable luck in close games. The Notre Dame win was certainly impressive, and if Miami can force turnovers at that rate, Wisconsin is also poorly built to come back from a big deficit. I think Wisconsin is going to come out with a very conservative gameplan, and bet that their offense can out-execute Miami's over 60 minutes.
• Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Miami 7
• On the Peach Bowl
• This Auburn team is really good - arguably playoff worthy. They beat Alabama and Georgia convincingly; their losses were all against top-16 teams, two of them true road games and another one a de-facto road game the week after playing Alabama. Again, I'm not faulting the committee for excluding them, but I do think Clemson would much rather be playing Alabama or Ohio State than Auburn.
• I'm not sure why Jarrett Stidham isn't getting more NFL draft buzz. He has an NFL arm, with solid accuracy and mobility.
• In a better world, the playoff would include every conference champion, and UCF would get the chance to prove itself on the biggest stage. I personally believe we should have a playoff system in which every team controls its destiny at the start of the year - any team that wins every game on its schedule should get a shot at the championship. Ok, rant over.
• Auburn hasn't played a team with a scheme like UCF, so perhaps UCF could pull off an upset by throwing out some zany wrinkles. Perhaps Auburn won't be motivated. But my hunch is that UCF simply won't be able to handle Auburn's defensive line. I sure hope I'm wrong though.
• Prediction: Auburn 35, UCF 20

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