On USC
Going into last season I was very low on USC. I felt confident that a team with Lincoln Riley, a 4th year quarterback, and a wide receiver room stacked with former elite high school recruits would put up points in bunches; however, I did not think they would be able to field a power-4 (let alone superpower-2) level defensive line, and that the big ten would grind them to mush. The season ended up playing out almost the opposite of what I expected.
The offense was capable but fatally inconsistent. Lincoln Riley's great innovation was figuring out how to marry power running schemes with the air raid passing concepts; the irony is that Riley may not actually be the best operator for the machine he created. Last year USC was extremely efficient at running the ball and mediocre at passing the ball. This doesn't mean they should turn into 3 yards and a cloud of dust, but it does mean that the running game was vastly underutilized. The result was an offense that looked pretty good on paper but struggled to finish drives and chew clock, which is what allowed inferior teams to stay closer than they should have. The pass-happy approach might have worked if wide receiver room had played up to its ceiling. Ja'Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon were spectacular, but Zach Branch and Duce Robinson didn't play anywhere close to their 5-star ratings. With a more dynamic quarterback that might've been enough to carry the offense, but they needed to strike gold on all four of those guys to be able to get away with Riley's lack of balance.
On the other hand, the defensive coaching staff blew me away with the turnaround. The 2023 Grinch defense is one of the worst college defenses I have ever seen; the fact that this staff only needed a year to put together a passable defense (despite being paper thin on the defensive line) is a miracle. Unfortunately however, Grinch's subpar recruiting and incomprehensible preference for undersized body types put a hard ceiling how much the defense could improve. This was a well-coached, fundamentally sound defense that inevitably wore down late in close games due to their physical limitations (and exacerbated by the offense's inability stretch leads or kill clock). I feel fully confident in the schematic and developmental ability of the defensive staff.
It's easy to talk myself into this year being a huge step forward. Jayden Maiava now has four games plus a full offseason under his belt, and his physical abilities will unlock parts of Lincoln Riley's system that Miller Moss couldn't really execute. They have two first round talents are receiver, and Waymond Jordan looks like a transfer portal steal. They finally have the quality and quantity of bodies that this scheme need on the interior defensive line. They have too many NFL-caliber players at edge rusher to continue having pass rush problems. Desman Stephens and (when healthy) Eric Gentry are studs at linebacker. Getting Kamari Ramsey to return is found money, and with another year in this scheme he has All-American potential. I also think having Bishop Fitzgerald there to handle deep coverage will allow this staff to utilize Ramsey as a more versatile chess piece that better optimizes his skills.
And yet...I still have questions. They don't have enough speed at corner, which will limit what coverages thay can run. The offensive line is painfully thin on experience. I do appreciate that this staff has put an emphasis on bringing in bodies on the offensive line after years of Helton neglecting that position, but this year will be a referendum on the staff's ability to actually develop the players they recruited. And even if the offensive line gels...will Riley actually be willing to actually lean on the running game if the results dictate so? One of my biggest frustrations with the Lincoln Riley era is that at Oklahoma he was more than willing to spam the running game if he could, and that seems to have disappeared the last two seasons. I think (hope) he might not have any choice this year - in part because Waymond Jordan might be too good to ignore, but in part because it's unlikely that Maivava can actually lead a pro-style passing attack. He just hasn't shown the touch and accuracy on intermediate throws (which is unfortunate given how talented the tight end room is).
I think the best-case (as in, literally every single thing goes right) scenario is that that they can combine the 2019 Jalen Hurts Oklahoma offense with the 2023 UCLA defense. If Lincoln Riley can get back to that style of playcalling - lean on the power-option run game to set up play action shots - this can work. If he keeps trying to call games like a classic air raid coach, then this is going to be a long season.
I think USC goes 9-3, by virtue of Lincoln Riley rediscovering his roots, the defense benefiting from more talent and another year under this elite staff, and better luck in close games.
On Texas
Texas is giving me the same vibes as Florida State in 2013. The 2012 Seminoles were a very good team. Jimbo Fisher had finally turned the corner in re-stocking the talent after the disastrous end of the Bobby Bowden era. One of their biggest strengths ended up also being what held them back from true title contention. EJ Manuel was a 5th year senior who raised the teams floor but lowered the team's ceiling. He had clearly maxed out his ability, and he never quite mastered all of the nuances of Jimbo Fisher's offense. His backup at the time was a former 5-star recruit named Jameis Winston. A year later, after EJ went to the NFL, Jameis took his place and was able to unleash the full power of Jimbo's offense en route to a national title.
Steve Sarkisian has been completely transformed the talent and culture at Texas. They have blue chippers up and down the roster and they have no holes. I fully believe that Ewers has raised Texas's floor but lowered their ceiling with his inability to master the deep passing game. Their offense has been awesome on paper but it always felt like it ground to a halt against teams with comparable talent. I think Arch Manning is poised to unlock the full power of Sark's passing game and upgrade their offense from reliably good to outright lethal, and he'll be able to execute the kind of pro-style passing game that forms the trump card in games with evenly matched talent. I'm all in on the Longhorns.
On Penn State
I remember in 2011 when Oklahoma was the consensus number one team, it never quite sat right with me. In retrospect, there were some warning signs. The talent level on the roster was very good but not quite elite. Bob Stoops was a very good but not elite coach (he was obviously elite at his peak but in my opinion he lost his fastball from 2009 onwards). Landry Jones was a very good college quarterback but hardly elite. The program had settled into a groove of beating the teams they were supposed to beat and losing to the teams with comparable talent.
I have the same gut feeling about Penn State being ranked number 1 in some polls and being considered the consensus favorite to win the Big Ten. I like James Franklin a lot more than the average fan, and even the I would agree with the consensus that he is very good but decidedly not elite. This program hasn't had a true statement win against a blue chip ratio team since...2016 Ohio State? Penn State hasn't recruited at an elite level, and I have simply never bought into the first round hype when it comes to Drew Allar. I think this roster is more talented than Oklahoma in 2011 (mostly due to awesome retention and development), I think Allar is better than Landry Jones, and maybe another year under Andy Kotelnicki will help him level up. I do believe this will be a top 5 defense and the running game will be strong. I understand why this team is so appealing on paper. I am sure they'll be a playoff team and they'll be better than 2011 Oklahoma. But my gut is screaming at me not to buy into them as title favorites.
On Clemson
I love that Dabo Swinney is getting Clemson back to the style that won them two titles. They're back to the program that is loaded with freaks at receiver and defensive line, a stud signal caller to distribute the rock, experienced and heady players everywhere else, and a decided edge in culture, retention, and continuity. This reminds me of Jim Harbaugh's 2021-24 renaissance at Michigan (and it's part of why I still cling to hope for Lincoln Riley at USC).
I don't think Cade Klubnik is as good as Trevor Lawrence or Deshaun Watson but given what they've got at receiver, Klubnik is more than sufficient for a deep playoff run.
Some of the criticism of Dabo failing to adapt to the transfer portal era lacked nuance. During Clemson's peak, they always took small classes and relied on their scouting, retention, and development. It worked; Clemson had an astronomical hit rate on their high school recruits. This strategy has some inherent risk to it that got magnified during the portal era. The small classes depend on pristine retention, which is much harder with unlimited transfers. However, Clemson didn't abandon their principles and pivot to becoming a portal program, and in retrospect I think a lot of teams that fully embraced the portal wish they had stood firm like Clemson did. They re-fortified their pristine culture, and their portal discipline is a strong selling point in recruiting and retention.
On Ohio State
I don't have a strong opinion on Julian Sayin, but with the way Ohio State recruits and develops the wide receiver position I'm not sure it matters who the quarterback is. Ohio State can win a title with a game manager at quarterback. Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs may well be the two best players in the entire country. There's a lot to like here, and to be totally honest, I feel more comfortable betting on OSU than I do on Penn State.
The biggest concern is the shocking lack of depth on the interior defensive line. I have no idea how it got to this point - there's no excuse for Ohio State not to have more capable bodies. I think run defense could become a real snowballing problem as the season goes on. Against most teams it won't matter because OSU has enough offensive firepower to force teams to abandon the run, but it's a real concern against the best teams on their schedule. I'm picking them to lose to Texas, and I wouldn't be shocked if OSU loses the the big game again (though it's for those same reasons that I'm still picking them to beat Penn State).
I have mixed feelings on Ryan Day. He's clearly a top 5 coach and it would be foolish to insist otherwise. It's true that he inherited a juggernaut from Urban Meyer, but it was a juggernaut with visible cracks. He's managed to maintain 95% of the dominance that Urban built while also building a much more stable and sustainable culture. The title run was outright dominant. That said, somewhere along the way Day lost the identity that made him such a hot commodity in the first place. By 2018 Urban Meyer's offense outlived its expiration date. Ryan Day revitalized the program by bringing lethal pro-style passing concepts that unleashed their wide receivers. Ryan Day spooked Jim Harbaugh so badly that he trying to turn Michigan into a spread team just to keep up. Harbaugh eventually figured out that what he needed wasn't to abandon his offensive principles, but rather modernize his defense, and that's how eventually got the better of Day. Ironically, Day reacted by making the same mistake that Harbaugh made - he abandoned his offensive identity instead of focusing on adapting his defense. They managed to win the title this way, so I guess who am I to question it, but I think Ohio State is leaving something on the table by trying to prove to the world that they can win by running the ball. They (somehow) have even better receivers than they had from 2018-2022, I wish they would double, triple, and quadruple down on that.
On Tennessee
I have a lot of respect for what Josh Heupel has built at Tennessee. It reminds me of a passing-based version of Chip Kelly's Oregon teams. Going from Nico to Aguilar lowers their ceiling but I don't think it really lowers their floor very much. Their outcome will be determined by how well the sophomore receivers step up more than how the quarterback plays.
On Notre Dame
I think people are really underestimating the effect that going from Riley Leonard to CJ Carr will have. Riley Leonard did a valiant Tim Tebow impression in 2024. Notre Dame's offense wasn't all that scary on a down to down basis, but they were able to grind out wins because Leonard was so great at keeping the chains moving and coming through in high-leverage situations. If you couldn't put Notre Dame away early it was really hard to beat them because they had no qualms about using Leonard as a human battering ram in the fourth quarter. They are really going to miss his insane durability and toughness. I know that CJ Carr has a better arm, but who exactly is he throwing to? Unless one of their receivers has a breakout year, I have doubts about Notre Dame's ceiling.
On Alabama
There are way too many people sleeping on the Crimson Tide. They invested a full year of development into their uber-talented freshmen wideouts and defensive backs. That led to them taking some lumbs, but the return on investment is that they are absolutely loaded going into 2025. They appear solid everywhere else on the roster. Quarterback may appear to be a question mark, but I don't see it that way. In my opinion, nobody - I mean, nobody - teaches quarterback play better than Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb. I don't think you can put enough confidence in that brain trust when it comes to squeezing the maximum out of the quarterback position. If they can coax a strong year out of Ty Simpson (which I think they can and will do), this roster is locked and loaded for a deep playoff run. Very few teams are going to be able to contain their firepower on offense or keep pace going against that secondary.
On Georgia
Kirby Smart is the best coach in America, but if we're going to pick nits in his resume, the biggest difference between him and Saban is Saban's ability to consistently churn out first round pass catchers. It is perplexing to me that Georgia never seems to have a true number one wideout on their roster. To be fair, Brock Bowers was a monster for them, but I honestly don't think they fully realized what they had in Bowers. He could have won the Heisman trophy if they had dedicated themselves to optimizing their offense around him. In any case, they haven't had any other pass catchers replicate that success, and I think it's going to bite them in the butt this year. I know a lot of Georgia fans are excited about Zach Branch - totally reasonable if you watch his high school highlights. But he still isn't a high-level route runner; unless Georgia manages to develop him in a way that they simply haven't done with any recent receivers, he's more of a gadget weapon than a complete player.
I wouldn't want any part of Georgia in the playoffs because they're still Georgia, and you know that every level of the defense is going to be physical, freakishly athletic, and exceptionally disciplined. No staff gameplans better than this one. But I just think they've dug too much of a hole at wide receiver for me to feel good about picking them against the other elite teams.
On Miami
I feel bearish on Carson Beck. I saw what a shoulder injury did to Kedon Slovis, and I don't think it's a given that Carson Beck will return to the level we saw in 2023. That said, I don't think Miami needs that to make the playoff. Cristobal has recruited a loaded roster, he always delivers elite offensive line play, and I think their secondary will be significantly improved.
Championship pick
Texas over Alabama
