On USC
Going into last season I was very low on USC. I felt confident that a team with Lincoln Riley, a 4th year quarterback, and a wide receiver room stacked with former elite high school recruits would put up points in bunches; however, I did not think they would be able to field a power-4 (let alone superpower-2) level defensive line, and that the big ten would grind them to mush. The season ended up playing out almost the opposite of what I expected.
The offense was capable but fatally inconsistent. Lincoln Riley's great innovation was figuring out how to marry power running schemes with the air raid passing concepts; the irony is that Riley may not actually be the best operator for the machine he created. Last year USC was extremely efficient at running the ball and mediocre at passing the ball. This doesn't mean they should turn into 3 yards and a cloud of dust, but it does mean that the running game was vastly underutilized. The result was an offense that looked pretty good on paper but struggled to finish drives and chew clock, which is what allowed inferior teams to stay closer than they should have. The pass-happy approach might have worked if wide receiver room had played up to its ceiling. Ja'Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon were spectacular, but Zach Branch and Duce Robinson didn't play anywhere close to their 5-star ratings. With a more dynamic quarterback that might've been enough to carry the offense, but they needed to strike gold on all four of those guys to be able to get away with Riley's lack of balance.
On the other hand, the defensive coaching staff blew me away with the turnaround. The 2023 Grinch defense is one of the worst college defenses I have ever seen; the fact that this staff only needed a year to put together a passable defense (despite being paper thin on the defensive line) is a miracle. Unfortunately however, Grinch's subpar recruiting and incomprehensible preference for undersized body types put a hard ceiling how much the defense could improve. This was a well-coached, fundamentally sound defense that inevitably wore down late in close games due to their physical limitations (and exacerbated by the offense's inability stretch leads or kill clock). I feel fully confident in the schematic and developmental ability of the defensive staff.
It's easy to talk myself into this year being a huge step forward. Jayden Maiava now has four games plus a full offseason under his belt, and his physical abilities will unlock parts of Lincoln Riley's system that Miller Moss couldn't really execute. They have two first round talents are receiver, and Waymond Jordan looks like a transfer portal steal. They finally have the quality and quantity of bodies that this scheme need on the interior defensive line. They have too many NFL-caliber players at edge rusher to continue having pass rush problems. Desman Stephens and (when healthy) Eric Gentry are studs at linebacker. Getting Kamari Ramsey to return is found money, and with another year in this scheme he has All-American potential. I also think having Bishop Fitzgerald there to handle deep coverage will allow this staff to utilize Ramsey as a more versatile chess piece that better optimizes his skills.
And yet...I still have questions. They don't have enough speed at corner, which will limit what coverages thay can run. The offensive line is painfully thin on experience. I do appreciate that this staff has put an emphasis on bringing in bodies on the offensive line after years of Helton neglecting that position, but this year will be a referendum on the staff's ability to actually develop the players they recruited. And even if the offensive line gels...will Riley actually be willing to actually lean on the running game if the results dictate so? One of my biggest frustrations with the Lincoln Riley era is that at Oklahoma he was more than willing to spam the running game if he could, and that seems to have disappeared the last two seasons. I think (hope) he might not have any choice this year - in part because Waymond Jordan might be too good to ignore, but in part because it's unlikely that Maivava can actually lead a pro-style passing attack. He just hasn't shown the touch and accuracy on intermediate throws (which is unfortunate given how talented the tight end room is).
I think the best-case (as in, literally every single thing goes right) scenario is that that they can combine the 2019 Jalen Hurts Oklahoma offense with the 2023 UCLA defense. If Lincoln Riley can get back to that style of playcalling - lean on the power-option run game to set up play action shots - this can work. If he keeps trying to call games like a classic air raid coach, then this is going to be a long season.
I think USC goes 9-3, by virtue of Lincoln Riley rediscovering his roots, the defense benefiting from more talent and another year under this elite staff, and better luck in close games.
