On the 2017 College Football Season

A few predictions:

• On the SEC:
• Last year, Alabama had the best front seven - and as a result, the best defense - of the Saban era. Alabama is a recruiting factory, but it's pretty naive to think there won't be a meaningful drop off on that side of the ball. But I'm a big believer in Jalen Hurts. His youth was obvious last year when he struggled against Washington's and Clemson's (elite) defenses in the playoffs. But I liked what I saw during the regular season and expect him to keep growing as a passer with another year in Saban's offense. I think Hurts will be the first time Saban has had a quarterback who's dynamic enough to win games when the defense doesn't play well, and as a result he'll be able to mask the talent losses they're suffering from last year. The Crimson Tide will have the conference's best roster, the best coach, and maybe the best quarterback, and they get LSU at home - I think you can pencil in Alabama for another playoff berth.
• Auburn is the only other SEC team I can see making the playoff, but I have some questions. Jarett Stidham showed that he was a dynamic arm talent at Baylor; if he's healthy and plays to his potential, Auburn's defense should be good enough to win the SEC west. But Stidham excels at the drop-back vertical passing game; this might make him an awkward fit this year because A) Auburn's receiving corps is relatively unproven and B) Malzahn's best success has historically come when he's run an offense designed around the quarterback running the ball. If the receivers can come through, and if Malzahn can adapt, Auburn can challenge Alabama.
• The other team that some are picking to be second in the SEC west is LSU, but I just don't see it. LSU can out-talent most of the SEC, but to compete against Alabama and Auburn they'll need a whole lot more than they can realistically expect from Danny Etling. I like the Matt Canada hire, and I think he will eventually get LSU back to having a functional offense - just not this year.
• I think this is the final year for Butch Jones and Kevin Sumlin at their respective schools; they've both squandered too much talent for too long.
• I wasn't very impressed by the jobs Kirby Smart or Jacob Eason did last year. However, I think they're probably the most talented team in the division, and this will be the year Jim McElwain's subpar recruiting starts to rear its ugly head. So I'm picking Georgia to win the division - and get blown out in the conference championship game.
• On the Big 12
• Oklahoma is pretty much where Ohio State was at the end of the Jim Tressel era; they can out-recruit and out-coach their conference, but they consistently get exposed in big inter-conference matchups. There are signs that Lincoln Riley can get OU's recruiting back to level it was during the mid-2000s, but this year should probably be a replay of last year. They'll get outclassed by Ohio State, run roughshod through the least talented power 5 conference, and hope for a favorable bowl matchup. 
• Oklahoma State could win the conference but for now I'm not betting against Baker Mayfield.
• I think Texas will probably struggle early (the early trip to USC is brutal), but they should get better as the season goes along. I'm really interested to see how Tom Herman handles the quarterback position. I liked what Shane Buechele showed last year, but Herman typically likes to lean heavily on the quarterback run - will he adapt his offense for Buechele, or try build for the future with someone more athletic but inexperienced? 
• On the ACC
• I'm not as bullish on Florida State as others are, mostly because I'm not sold on Deondre Francois. They have so much overall talent that on paper, they should probably be the ACC favorites. But having to play Alabama (who typically chews up and spits out their week one opponents) and at Clemson (who should have the conference's best defense) makes me hesitant to pencil them in for a playoff spot.
• If Kelly Bryant can be solid, I think I prefer Clemson to Florida State. All of the other pieces are there for another title run. But if Bryant struggles early, I could see Clemson's playoff hopes dashed by the end of October.
• I think by the end of last year teams had figured out how to defend Lamar Jackson. Unless Bobby Petrino can come up with a genius new wrinkle to unleash the version of Jackson that we saw in September and October, I think Louisville is a clear step below FSU and Clemson.
• I think this is finally the year Miami wins the ACC Coastal. The defense is going to be nasty, and I trust Mark Richt to coax above average play out of his new quarterback.
• On the Big Ten
• Last year the Clemson game exposed how much Ohio State's vertical passing game has regressed. In 2014 the emergence of Cardale Jones's arm and Devin Smith's speed unlocked the Buckeyes offensive potential, and the result was a championship run in which nobody could handle their combination of power running and vertical passing. Last year, Ohio State's downfield passing game was limited. It didn't matter most weeks because they were good enough to consistently grind out 5 yard gains and stay ahead of the chains. But when Clemson's defensive line bottled up the running game the entire offense shut down. That won't happen this year thanks to the best assistant coach hire of the offseason. New offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson probably shouldn't be allowed to run a football program again, but as the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners showed, the man sure knows how to scheme up a devastating spread passing game. Obviously J.T. Barrett isn't the pocket passer Sam Bradford was, but I think his legs and the offensive line are enough to scheme receivers open, and Wilson will make sure Ohio State can better take advantage of those mismatches on the outside this year. Their roster is loaded, as usual, but I think they'll get even more out of their talent this year than they did last year.
• I think Michigan really missed a huge opportunity last year. I thought they had one of the four best teams in the country, but had rotten luck in their close games. Unfortunately, last year was one of the years where they needed to take advantage, because they lost a lot of upper class talent. They'll be good this year, because Harbaugh is too good at talent acquisition and development, but with everything they lost I can't see them beating Ohio State this year.
• I think Penn State will be a notch below Ohio State and Michigan for a couple reasons. One, Penn State doesn't recruit quite at quite the same level as those two on two on the offensive and defensive lines, and so I worry about their depth. Second, last year the team was explosive on offense, but not terribly efficient (only 80th in success rate, per Bill Connelly), and I'm pretty skeptical of how sustainable that formula is.
• Wisconsin is only the 4th best team in the conference, but they might have the best chance to win it by virtue of their schedule. Still, I have a hard time picking them to actually win once they make the Big 10 title game, unless Alex Hornibrook turns in a special season.
• On the Pac 12
• USC is losing some significant pieces, especially on the offensive line, and that's a legitimate cause for concern. But the answer I come back to every time is Sam Darnold. I think Darnold is clearly the best player in college football, and the best NFL draft prospect since Andrew Luck. He's going to cover up so many of their holes, and give them a margin for error that they haven't had in years. USC has consistently recruited at an elite level since the sanctions ended, so they'll be replacing the departing seniors with highly talented players. Those young players are going to need time to settle in, and I think Darnold is more than capable of carrying the team while those young players find their footing. The only game that would really worry me is the young offensive line having to go against Stanford's front seven in week two (Darnold's uncanny mobility is going to be important there). I think by the time they play Notre Dame the younger players will be settled in and USC will be ready to compete with the nation's best.
• I think Washington will win the North, but I think they'll lose in the conference championship game. I may be proven wrong, but I suspect that Washington is destined for the same fate as Chip Kelly's Oregon teams - they'll never take a week off and dominate inferior teams through sheer consistency, execution, and efficiency, but get exposed against teams that recruit elite lineman. It's possible that Jake Browning is a first round stud who was hampered by an injured shoulder; however, when I watch him I see an accurate but weak-armed late round pick who can dominate most teams but simply can't mask Washington's talent deficiencies against other teams that recruit at an elite level. 
• I'm picking Washington to win the Pac-12 North, but I wouldn't be surprised at al if Stanford wins it, or even if they win the conference. Quarterback is a major question mark, enough so that I wouldn't dare pick them to win a playoff game. However, David Shaw has proven that he can recruit and develop elite linemen. For all Shaw's game management flaws, Stanford's trench talent might be enough to win at home against Washington, and I trust them to beat the rest of the teams in the division.
• UCLA has the talent to be the second best team in the Pac-12. In Josh Rosen, they have a quarterback with enough talent to be drafted with a top-five pick, and their overall recruiting is second only to USC. But Jim Mora has proven that he can consistently do less with more, and I don't expect this year to be any different. There's no reason why UCLA should lose any game other than the ones at USC and Stanford, but based on Mora's history I think they'll lose those ones, the Texas A&M game, and at least two more, leading to Mora's ouster.
• I expect Oregon will be much improved from last year. Their defense was truly awful, and it'll probably take at least a full year for Jim Leavitt to fix that, but I think Willie Taggart can return the offense back to the point where it was putting the fear of God in the rest of the conference. They play Washington and Stanford on the road, but those were probably going to be losses anyways. With Nebraska, Utah, and Washington State having to come to Autzen, I think Oregon should expect 9 wins and aim for 10 wins.
• I would be somewhat surprised if Todd Graham lasts past this season. I would be REALLY surprised if Rich Rodriguez lasts past this season - he appears completely checked out.
• On the Group of Five
• I'm pretty torn on Boise State. One one hand, I just can't see them having a third straight flameout season. I feel like Brett Rypien is too good for them to lose the conference title again. Then again, their toughest games (Washington state, BYU, SDSU, Fresno St., Colorado St., Utah St.) are on the road. Boise State will have a talent advantage most weeks, but the past three years haven't convinced me that Bryan Harsin is as good as Chris Petersen, specifically in terms of avoiding close losses to inferior teams. Ultimately, I guess it just seems crazy to me that Boise would go three full season without a Mountain West title. So I'm going to pick them for a conference title and a New Years 6 berth.
• On the College Football Playoff
• I'm picking 1. Alabama 2. Ohio State 3. USC 4. Clemson
• At this point, betting against Alabama is like betting against death and taxes.
• Ohio State is going to be amazing with Kevin Wilson's offense. Ohio State's schedule is too tough to expect them to go undefeated, but I thin Wilson's offense will have them on a tear by the end of the season.
• I think USC is probably the safest playoff bet - they have the best player in America at the most important position, and a massive talent advantage over the rest of their conference. However, I don't see them escaping the four games against Stanford, Washington State, Notre Dame, and UCLA without a loss. Thus, I have them seeded third.
• I think Clemson will figure out their offense in time to beat Florida State and overcome one early loss.
• I'm picking Alabama over USC in the national championship
• On the Heisman Trophy
• This is Sam Darnold's award to lose. Sure, there will be challenges from J.T. Barrett, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough, and a host of other players, but Darnold is the clear frontrunner right now. I wouldn't bet against him. He has all the tools you want in a quarterback - including an (often inexplicable) ability to vaporize pass rushers and would-be tacklers, which will server him well as his new offensive linemen gel. I get that Andrew Luck didn't win the heisman, but I think it's more likely that Sam Darnold matches the hype than that someone emerges out of nowhere the way Robert Griffin III did.

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